The Swedish Ministry of Finance expects the economy to continue recovering in 2026 and 2027, supported by stronger household consumption, business investment and exports. Growth is forecast to exceed the European Union average in 2026, although global uncertainty and higher energy prices are expected to temper the expansion over the next six months. A stronger labor market, rising real wages and continued investment should sustain domestic demand. Inflation is expected to be the lowest in the EU in 2026, based on the European Commission's forecast, before stabilizing around the Riksbank's target in 2027, while unemployment gradually declines. The ministry estimates scope for SEK 50 billion in unfunded reforms during the next electoral term, excluding new defense spending and support for Ukraine.
2026-08-27Ministry of Finance (Sweden)
Swedish Ministry of Finance projects continued economic recovery and SEK 50 billion in reform headroom
The Swedish Ministry of Finance expects the economic recovery to continue through 2027, despite a near-term slowdown linked to global uncertainty and higher energy prices. It estimates SEK 50 billion in scope for unfunded reforms during the next electoral term, excluding new defense spending and support for Ukraine.