Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Economic Survey of Bulgaria projects slower growth and urges reforms to lift productivity and safeguard public finances

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) published its latest Economic Survey of Bulgaria, projecting GDP growth to moderate to 2.6% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027 from 3.0% in 2025, alongside inflation declining to 2.7% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027. The Survey argues that sustaining Bulgaria’s convergence with OECD income levels will require a comprehensive reform agenda focused on boosting business productivity while managing rising fiscal pressures. Key recommendations include lowering barriers to market entry, strengthening competition and anti-corruption efforts, and improving institutional capacity to support investment and productivity. To help curb informality and protect tax revenues, the OECD points to reducing informal employment and improving tax compliance, including extending requirements for bank-based salary payments to a wider range of firms, and using public spending reviews to prioritise and create room for growth-enhancing outlays on investment, innovation and skills. The Survey also calls for increased public research spending and stronger university-business links, education reforms to raise skills (including delaying tracking and providing workplace-based training for vocational students), and further climate-policy action to meet net-zero goals by 2050 through detailed coal plant closure plans, reforms to fuel and vehicle taxation, and higher investment in renewable energy and electricity grids.