The National Bank of Denmark published an analysis assessing how artificial intelligence (AI) could affect productivity in the Danish economy, concluding that AI is likely to support higher productivity but that both the size and timing of the impact are highly uncertain. The analysis frames AI-driven productivity as relevant for the central bank because it influences potential growth, competitiveness, the natural real interest rate and inflation. AI adoption is described as rapid, with 42 per cent of Danish companies (with at least ten employees in private, non-financial urban industries) using at least one AI technology in 2025, making Denmark the EU country with the highest company-level uptake. Using scenario calculations based on a task-based approach, the analysis estimates that 39–61 per cent of work tasks are exposed to AI, and that AI could raise Denmark’s annual total factor productivity growth by around 0.1–1.0 percentage points over a ten-year period, compared with average annual total factor productivity growth of about 0.5 per cent over the past five years. It also notes that, given the uncertainty, Danmarks Nationalbank does not include a separate AI contribution in its latest three-year forecast, and highlights potential second-round effects through investment needs, labour market reallocation, unit costs and energy demand from data centres.
National Bank of Denmark 2026-04-08
National Bank of Denmark analysis estimates AI could add 0.1–1.0 percentage points to Denmark’s annual total factor productivity growth
The National Bank of Denmark published an analysis concluding that artificial intelligence is likely to support higher productivity in the Danish economy, but with highly uncertain magnitude and timing, so no separate AI contribution is included in its latest three-year forecast. The analysis notes rapid AI adoption, with 42 per cent of Danish companies using at least one AI technology in 2025, and estimates that 39–61 per cent of work tasks are exposed to AI. It finds AI could raise annual total factor productivity growth by around 0.1–1.0 percentage points over ten years, compared with about 0.5 per cent over the past five years, and highlights potential second-round effects via investment, labour market reallocation, unit costs and energy demand from data centres.