European Central Bank survey shows lower inflation expectations in June and a less negative growth outlook

The European Central Bank published the June 2026 results of its Consumer Expectations Survey, showing that consumers lowered both their perceived inflation over the previous 12 months and their inflation expectations over the next one and three years, while five-year expectations were unchanged. Median perceived inflation fell to 3.6% from 4.0% in May, one-year ahead inflation expectations dropped to 3.0% from 3.5%, three-year expectations edged down to 2.8% from 2.9%, and five-year expectations stayed at 2.4%. The survey also showed a slightly less negative outlook for economic growth and a small decline in expected unemployment 12 months ahead. Beyond inflation, expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months rose to 1.1% from 1.0%, while expected spending growth fell to 3.6% from 3.8% and perceived spending growth over the previous 12 months declined to 5.1% from 5.4%. Expectations for economic growth improved to -1.4% from -1.7%, and the expected unemployment rate in 12 months decreased to 11.2% from 11.3%, with households still seeing only a limited gap to the perceived current unemployment rate of 10.7%. In housing and credit, expected home price growth over the next 12 months eased to 3.4% from 3.6%, mortgage rate expectations increased to 5.0% from 4.9%, and the net share of households reporting tighter credit access, and expecting further tightening, both declined. The ECB said the next release covering July survey results is scheduled for 21 August 2026.