Mexico's Financial System Stability Council published an updated balance of risks following its 23 June 2025 session, concluding that the Mexican financial system remains solid and resilient despite a highly uncertain global environment. The Council also reviewed the latest Systemic Risk Perception Survey and an update on Mexico’s non-bank financial intermediation. The assessment pointed to global volatility linked to trade policy measures and heightened geopolitical tensions, alongside uncertainty over growth, inflation and the path of global monetary policy. Key external downside risks included a sharper or more prolonged global slowdown, renewed inflation pressures that could limit expected monetary easing, and surprises in global financial conditions that could impair market functioning. In Mexico, local markets were characterised as orderly, with the peso appreciating by a little over 6 per cent against the USD since the previous session, government bond yields declining across most maturities mainly at the short end, and equity indices rising by around 5 per cent. Commercial banks were assessed as holding capital and liquidity comfortably above minimum regulatory requirements, while non-bank intermediaries were not viewed as a systemic threat given their limited footprint and low direct interconnectedness with banks, although some institutions show vulnerabilities and will continue to be monitored. Survey respondents most frequently cited weaker growth prospects as the main financial risk, and political, geopolitical and social factors as the most prominent non-financial risks. Council members indicated they will continue to monitor the system closely and take actions within their mandates if needed to safeguard market functioning and financial stability.

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