The Central Bank of Barbados set out its 2026 macroeconomic outlook, projecting real GDP growth of 2 to 3 percent, inflation of 2 to 2.6 percent, a stable external position, and continued financial system stability. Tourism, construction, business and other services, alongside public and private investment, are expected to support activity, while strong liquidity, improved asset quality and robust capital buffers should allow deposit-taking institutions to continue lending to the non-financial private sector. Infrastructure upgrades, renewable energy projects and tourism developments are expected to support employment and productive capacity, while FY2026/27 Budget measures should reinforce private investment, improve access to finance, support small and medium-sized enterprises, and encourage activity in green technology, digital services and advanced manufacturing. The outlook also incorporates targeted tourism and agriculture measures, including lower regional travel fees, extended concessions, rebates and climate-smart incentives. The bank flagged downside risks from slower global growth, geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices and trade uncertainty, while noting that international reserves should remain above the 12-week import cover benchmark and that fiscal policy remains anchored by a primary surplus target of 4.1 percent of GDP in FY2026/27 and a public debt objective of 60 percent of GDP by FY2035/36.
Central Bank of Barbados 2026-05-01
Central Bank of Barbados projects 2026 GDP growth of 2 to 3 percent and inflation of 2 to 2.6 percent
The Central Bank of Barbados’ 2026 outlook projects real GDP growth of 2–3%, inflation of 2–2.6%, a stable external position and continued financial stability, driven by tourism, construction, services and investment. It expects infrastructure upgrades, renewable energy and tourism projects, plus FY2026/27 Budget measures, to boost jobs, private investment, finance access and activity in green tech, digital services and advanced manufacturing. Risks include weaker global growth, geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices and trade uncertainty, but reserves should stay above the 12‑week import benchmark, with fiscal policy anchored by a 4.1% of GDP primary surplus target and a 60% debt‑to‑GDP goal by FY2035/36.