The National Bank of Serbia published a note on Fitch’s latest sovereign review, which affirmed Serbia’s BB+ credit rating and maintained a positive outlook for an upgrade toward investment grade. Fitch linked the outlook to an adequate mix of economic policies, including a track record of sound fiscal governance, strong growth prospects, high foreign exchange reserves and higher gross domestic product per capita than the median of similarly rated countries. Fitch expects real GDP growth to accelerate from 3.9% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, driven by investment and supported by the “Leap into the Future – Serbia Expo 2027” programme, with private consumption underpinned by a resilient labour market and steady remittances. Public debt is projected to continue falling to below 45% of GDP by end-2027, despite higher capital investment, under a fiscal framework anchored by a new non-financial instrument agreed with the International Monetary Fund; strong foreign direct investment inflows are expected to more than cover the current account deficit and support further reserve accumulation. Headline inflation averaged 4.6% in 2024 and is forecast to stay within the National Bank of Serbia’s 3% ±1.5 percentage point target range in 2025, approaching the midpoint by end-2026; Fitch noted that the central bank is expected to continue moderating policy cautiously after cumulative 75 basis points of reference rate cuts in 2024. Governor Jorgovanka Tabaković pointed to Fitch’s emphasis on an almost 80% rise in GDP per capita from 2018 to 2024.

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