Central Bank of the Philippines reports February Business Expectations Survey confidence index rising to 51.1% for the year ahead

The Central Bank of the Philippines published results of its latest monthly Business Expectations Survey showing improved business sentiment. The year-ahead confidence index rose to 51.1% in February 2026 from 38.6% in January 2026, while the quarter-ahead confidence index increased to 37.4% from 33.3%. Respondents pointed to expectations of steady consumer demand, higher public works spending and ongoing governance reforms supporting growth in 2026; near-term optimism reflected favorable weather conditions and typically strong summer revenues, alongside expectations of firmer government spending as investor confidence recovers. Hiring intentions strengthened for both the quarter-ahead and year-ahead horizons, while expansion plans in the industry sector eased as fewer firms reported plans to expand. Businesses’ inflation expectations remained within the ±1.0 percentage-point tolerance band around the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ 3.0% target for 2026, with average quarter- and year-ahead readings below the target. The survey was conducted 5–28 February 2026 before the onset of the recent Middle East conflict, and the central bank flagged that the persistence of confidence and stable inflation expectations will depend on the conflict’s duration and domestic impact; the survey covered 502 firms nationwide with a 48.6% response rate and an estimated sampling error margin of ±6.2 percentage points.