The European Commission and European Investment Bank published a report finding that EU businesses increasingly treat geopolitical disruption as a structural feature of global trade. Sixty-four percent consider themselves prepared to manage geopolitical risks, although the proportion ranges from 73% among the largest companies to less than half among small and medium-sized enterprises. Nearly 90% expect exports to remain stable or increase, but firms trading with the United States and China are less optimistic. Trade risks have shifted from logistics and input shortages toward tariffs and regulation. Between 2023 and 2025, the proportion of firms citing logistics obstacles fell from 28% to 12%, while 20% now identify compliance with new regulations as a major obstacle and 18% cite customs and tariff changes. Firms operating only within the EU have reduced emergency supply chain adjustments more sharply, demonstrating the single market’s role as a buffer, while businesses sourcing outside the EU continue to diversify suppliers and markets. The report calls for targeted financial instruments covering geopolitical and trade risks, better early warning systems, greater regulatory clarity, progress on EU trade agreements and deeper single market integration. It also advocates support for innovation, digitalization, skills and supply chain resilience.
2026-09-17European Commission
European Commission and European Investment Bank find EU firms adapting to persistent geopolitical and trade risks
A European Commission and European Investment Bank report finds that 64% of EU firms are prepared to manage geopolitical risks and nearly 90% expect exports to remain stable or increase. Tariffs and regulatory compliance have overtaken logistics and input shortages as the main trade obstacles, while the single market is helping shield firms from disruption.