The National Bank of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council kept NBP interest rates unchanged, leaving the reference rate at 3.75%, as June CPI inflation eased to 2.5% y/y from 3.1% in May and domestic activity indicators improved, while growth in Poland’s immediate external environment remained subdued and the inflation outlook stayed uncertain. The Council said May retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production all increased in annual terms, while wage growth in the enterprise sector slowed from 2026 Q1 and employment there continued to decline. The July projection, based on unchanged NBP rates, showed a 50% probability of inflation at 2.4-3.3% and GDP growth at 3.0-4.4% in 2026. On the external side, the Council noted lower global energy prices, especially oil, but said the outlook for global activity and inflation remained uncertain, particularly because of the conflict in the Middle East; NBP also said it may intervene in the foreign exchange market. Further decisions will depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, with fiscal policy, wage growth, commodity prices, foreign inflation, and the geopolitical context identified as key risks.
Central Bank of Poland2026-07-08
National Bank of Poland holds reference rate at 3.75%
The National Bank of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council left National Bank of Poland interest rates unchanged, with the reference rate at 3.75%, citing lower June consumer price index inflation of 2.5% year on year, stronger domestic activity indicators, subdued growth in Poland’s immediate external environment, and an uncertain inflation outlook. Its July projection, based on unchanged rates, put the 50% probability range for 2026 inflation at 2.4% to 3.3% and gross domestic product growth at 3.0% to 4.4%, while the Council said future decisions will depend on incoming data and that the National Bank of Poland may intervene in the foreign exchange market.