The Bank of Guatemala published its macroeconomic outlook, projecting real GDP growth to slow from 4.3% in 2025 to 3.3% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. Headline inflation was 3.37% in August, within the 4% target range of plus or minus 1 percentage point, while the end-2026 forecast was revised to 2.89% from 3.75%. Inflation is projected to return to 4% by December 2027. Domestic activity indicators remained positive, with the Monthly Index of Economic Activity rising 4.5% year over year in July and economic confidence at 59.3 in August. The bank projects 2026 exports of USD 16.61 billion and imports of USD 37.73 billion, increasing to USD 17.69 billion and USD 40.74 billion, respectively, in 2027. Family remittances are forecast at USD 26.81 billion in 2026 and USD 27.61 billion in 2027, while private-sector bank credit was growing 6.7% year over year as of Sept. 17.
2026-09-24Bank of Guatemala
Bank of Guatemala projects GDP growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3% in 2027
The Bank of Guatemala projects GDP growth to slow to 3.3% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. Headline inflation was 3.37% in August, while the end-2026 forecast was cut to 2.89% from 3.75% before a projected return to 4% by December 2027.