The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston published a recap of its 69th Economic Research Conference, which examined how the US economy is adapting to an increasingly fragmented and volatile global environment. The programme focused on how heightened uncertainty, geopolitical risks and shifting trade patterns could affect investment, spending, financial-market volatility, and financial stability. Conference sessions covered global networks, supply-chain uncertainty, inflation, coercion, trade imbalances, and industrial policy, alongside a keynote on the evolving role of the United States in global value chains. Keynote speaker Pol Antràs reviewed the increasing fragmentation of production since the 1980s and discussed how tariffs may be reshaping supply chains, including reported shifts in some US imports from China to other countries such as Vietnam and Mexico, while noting uncertainty over whether tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the US. A Boston Fed paper comparing firms’ exposure to the 2018 and 2025 tariff episodes found that in 2018 higher cost exposure was associated with higher prices and lower profit margins and investment, with no observed benefits to employment or inventories, while export retaliation was linked to lower margins but higher investment; for 2025, the authors noted tariffs are still ongoing and reported that exposure for direct importers was 10 times larger than in 2018. The conference papers and recorded presentations were made available via the Boston Fed website.

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