The OECD has published an OECD Economics Department working paper presenting early research on how artificial intelligence may interact with population ageing across 31 countries. Using OECD Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies data, the paper finds that AI could help offset weaker growth and labour shortages in ageing economies through productivity gains, but that capturing those gains will depend on labour market reallocation, reskilling and upskilling, and business dynamism that may be weaker in older societies. As a preliminary working paper, it is intended to stimulate discussion and does not necessarily reflect the official views of OECD member countries. The paper finds that workers’ overall exposure to AI follows an inverted U-shaped pattern across age groups, with exposure rising into mid-career and then declining, while exposure to automation is highest among younger workers and falls rapidly with age as experience tends to complement AI. It also highlights wide cross-country differences in both demographic pressures and estimated AI potential. Older workers appear somewhat less exposed to direct substitution by AI and more likely to work in roles where AI augments labour, but lower job mobility, lower use of advanced ICT tools and weaker participation in training at older ages could make adjustment harder. The paper also points to mixed evidence on whether AI will reduce entry-level job opportunities and says weaker business dynamism in ageing societies could slow the diffusion of new technologies. The working paper says further research is needed on whether AI produces a one-off level shift in productivity or a lasting increase in growth, how quickly physical AI and robotics may develop, and how demographics, firm dynamism and technological change interact across OECD economies.
OECD2026-07-06
OECD publishes research saying AI could partly offset ageing economies but raises reskilling and labour reallocation challenges
The OECD has published a working paper finding that AI could partly offset the economic drag from ageing through productivity gains and relief for labour shortages, but only if economies can support reskilling, worker reallocation and innovation. Using PIAAC data, it finds AI exposure peaks around mid-career, while younger workers are more exposed to automation and older workers are more likely to see AI as a complement to experience. The paper also warns that lower mobility, weaker training participation and weaker business dynamism in ageing societies could limit the gains.