The International Monetary Fund published a press briefing transcript in which Communications Director Julie Kozack set out the Fund’s initial reading of the macro and financial spillovers from the Middle East conflict, amid sharp increases in energy prices and tighter global financial conditions. The briefing highlighted disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and stated the IMF is engaging with member countries on potential impacts and support options, while noting it has not received any formal requests for emergency financing. The IMF identified three main transmission channels: commodity prices, inflation and inflation expectations, and financial conditions. It estimated the Strait of Hormuz closure has cut off access to roughly 20 percent of global oil and seaborne liquefied natural gas supplies, while oil and gas prices have risen by more than 50 percent over the last month to above USD 100 a barrel, with fertilizer shipment disruptions raising risks of food price increases. As a rule of thumb, every 10 percent persistent increase in oil prices could lift global headline inflation by around 40 basis points and lower global output by 0.1 to 0.2 percent, while markets have seen declining equity prices, higher bond yields, more volatility, a stronger USD, and weaker emerging market currencies. Country updates included ongoing talks on a possible IMF-supported reform program for Lebanon, confirmation that the IMF Executive Board approved Egypt’s fifth and sixth program reviews and the first review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility arrangement on February 25 enabling about USD 2.3 billion in disbursements, and that Ukraine is under a new four-year Extended Fund Facility totaling USD 8.1 billion with an IMF mission in Kyiv. A comprehensive assessment is scheduled for the April World Economic Outlook. The IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings are set for April 13 to 18, and the briefing indicated Lebanon discussions are expected to continue in Washington during those meetings, while an IMF team plans to visit Sri Lanka from March 26 to April 9 to discuss a combined fifth and sixth review under its program.
International Monetary Fund 2026-03-19
International Monetary Fund maps spillovers from the Middle East conflict and says no emergency financing requests have been received
The IMF assessed macro and financial spillovers from the Middle East conflict, noting significant disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz closure and a 50% rise in oil and gas prices. The IMF is engaging with member countries on potential impacts and support options, with no formal emergency financing requests received. Updates include ongoing talks with Lebanon, approved program reviews for Egypt, and a new Extended Fund Facility for Ukraine.