The European Central Bank published aggregated results from its September 2026 Survey of Monetary Analysts, with 69 respondents assigning an average 84.8% probability to a 25 basis point increase in the deposit facility rate at the first of the next two Governing Council meetings. The median forecast places the rate at 2.50% through the third quarter of 2027, falling to 2.25% in the fourth quarter and 2.00% in the long run. Respondents assigned an average 81.3% probability to no change at the second meeting. Median headline inflation expectations rise from 3.2% in the third quarter of 2026 to 3.3% in the fourth quarter, before declining to 2.0% by the fourth quarter of 2027. Two-thirds of respondents assessed 2026 inflation risks as tilted to the upside, while 43.5% saw downside risks to 2026 growth. Median quarterly GDP growth is expected to settle at 0.3% from late 2026, and the unemployment rate is projected to remain at 6.3% through 2027 before easing to 6.2%.
2026-09-11European Central Bank
European Central Bank survey shows analysts expect a 25 basis point rate increase and inflation to return to 2% by late 2027
The European Central Bank’s survey shows analysts assigning an 84.8% probability to a 25 basis point deposit rate increase at the first of the next two Governing Council meetings, followed by no change at the second. Median headline inflation is expected to remain above 3% in late 2026 before returning to 2% by the fourth quarter of 2027, with near-term inflation risks tilted to the upside.