Bank of Italy publishes July economic snapshot with 0.3 percent first quarter GDP growth and 3.1 percent June inflation

The Bank of Italy has published the July edition of The Italian economy in brief, its statistical update on current conditions in Italy’s economy and financial system. The release points to modest economic growth continuing into 2026, with gross domestic product rising 0.3 percent quarter on quarter in the first quarter after 0.3 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. It also shows inflation picking up, while the banking system remains strongly capitalized and liquid. The bulletin shows Italy’s harmonized consumer price inflation at 3.1 percent in June on a preliminary basis, after 3.2 percent in May, while inflation excluding energy and food was 1.7 percent. The current account posted a EUR 5.1 billion surplus in January to April 2026, compared with a EUR 2.0 billion deficit in the same period of 2025. For banks, weighted-average indicators at March 2026 were a 15.43 percent Common Equity Tier 1 ratio, a 19.47 percent total capital ratio, a 174.09 percent liquidity coverage ratio and a 131.51 percent net stable funding ratio. The publication also reports the Bank of Italy’s June macroeconomic projections for Italy of 0.5 percent growth in 2026, 0.4 percent in 2027 and 0.9 percent in 2028, with inflation at 3.1 percent in 2026, 2.0 percent in 2027 and 1.9 percent in 2028. The brief also includes official 2026 public finance estimates cited from the Ministry of Economy and Finance, showing a general government deficit of 2.9 percent of GDP, a primary surplus of 1.2 percent and gross public debt at 138.6 percent of GDP.