In its preliminary end-of-mission statement for the 2026 Article IV consultation with Burundi, the International Monetary Fund said the authorities’ stabilization measures have improved macroeconomic conditions, with growth accelerating in 2025 and inflation falling sharply, but that large external imbalances still leave the economy exposed to shocks. Staff said macroeconomic stabilization is achievable if Burundi sustains fiscal discipline, tightens monetary policy, and advances from the current dual exchange rate regime through a credible, orderly and well-sequenced reform process. The statement estimates real GDP growth at 4.2 percent in 2025, supported by stronger exports, while year-on-year inflation fell from about 45.5 percent in April 2025 to 10.8 percent in March 2026. The overall fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 3.4 percent of GDP in 2025/26 from 5.5 percent in 2024/25, and public debt is estimated at 42 percent of GDP at end-2025, assessed as sustainable but with a high risk of debt distress. Staff noted that the parallel exchange rate premium remained high at 100 percent at end-April 2026 and recommended a sequenced roadmap to phase out the dual exchange rate, alongside continued avoidance of central bank deficit financing, stronger revenue mobilisation, further public finance management reforms, tighter liquidity management, stronger bank supervision and a full Asset Quality Review. The IMF also highlighted governance, coffee, electricity and gold-sector reforms as important for sustaining growth and foreign exchange inflows. The IMF said staff will prepare a report based on these preliminary findings for discussion and decision by the Executive Board, subject to management approval.
International Monetary Fund2026-05-18
International Monetary Fund completes 2026 Article IV mission to Burundi and urges tighter monetary policy and sequenced exchange rate reform
The IMF’s preliminary end-of-mission statement for the 2026 Article IV consultation with Burundi finds that stabilization measures have improved growth and sharply reduced inflation, but large external imbalances and a high parallel exchange rate premium leave the economy vulnerable. Staff consider stabilization achievable if Burundi sustains fiscal discipline, tightens monetary policy, phases out the dual exchange rate through a sequenced roadmap, and advances revenue, public finance, financial sector, governance and key sector reforms. A staff report based on these findings will be prepared for Executive Board consideration.