The Central Bank of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) kept all interest rates unchanged, including the reference rate at 3.75%, against a backdrop of higher headline inflation and uncertainty over inflation and economic activity. The reference rate had declined through 25 basis-point cuts to 4.50% in October, 4.25% in November and 4.00% in December 2025, and to 3.75% in March 2026. Consumer price inflation rose to 4.0% year on year in September, mainly due to fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy was estimated to have edged down. Retail sales, industrial output and construction and assembly production increased year on year in August, although enterprise-sector wage growth slowed and employment continued to fall. Globally, higher energy commodity prices have lifted inflation from early-2026 levels, while the conflict in the Middle East is creating uncertainty over activity and inflation. The MPC said future decisions would depend on incoming inflation and activity data, with fiscal policy, energy-price regulation, domestic growth and wages among the risks, and reiterated that it may intervene in the foreign exchange market.
Central Bank of Poland Holds Reference Rate at 3.75%
The Central Bank of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council kept interest rates unchanged, including the reference rate at 3.75%, amid higher inflation and uncertainty over economic activity. Consumer price inflation rose to 4.0% year on year in September, while the Council said future decisions would remain data-dependent and reiterated its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market.