The National Bank of Ukraine’s September 2026 business survey showed that companies remained guarded about their economic performance. The business activity expectations index edged down to 48.2 from 48.3 in August and 50.4 a year earlier, remaining below the neutral level of 50. Deteriorating security, damage to logistics and operating facilities, higher fuel costs, limited supply and labor shortages constrained activity, while stable energy supplies, a strong harvest and new logistics routes provided support. Industry was the only sector with positive expectations, with its index rising to 51.0 from 47.3 as manufacturers anticipated higher output and new orders, including export orders. Construction fell below neutral to 48.8 after six months of optimism, reflecting suspended state funding for road and infrastructure restoration, seasonality and higher costs. Trade recorded the weakest reading at 45.9, while services declined to 47.3 amid logistics damage, fuel costs and skilled labor shortages. Respondents across most sectors expected faster growth in input prices and planned to raise selling prices more rapidly. Only construction companies intended to expand employment, while other sectors expected workforce reductions, led by services companies. The findings reflect the views of 588 surveyed companies rather than the National Bank of Ukraine’s own assessment.
National Bank of Ukraine survey shows guarded business outlook as activity index slips to 48.2
The National Bank of Ukraine’s September survey showed guarded business expectations, with the activity index slipping to 48.2 and remaining below the neutral level of 50. Industry returned to positive territory, but construction, trade and services reported weaker expectations. Companies anticipated stronger price pressures, while only construction businesses planned to increase staffing.