The Bank of Finland has published its BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2026–2028, projecting that Russia’s economic growth will remain at around 1% in 2026, broadly in line with the 1% outcome recorded in 2025, before slowing in 2027–2028. The forecast links the weak outlook to subdued private consumption and a lack of growth in fixed investment, reflecting slower real wage growth, a higher tax burden, high interest rates, low corporate profits and tight monetary policy. It also expects state-induced fiscal stimulus to be less supportive than in recent years as labour resources remain close to fully utilised, while high commodity prices provide support in 2026 but with effects fading thereafter. The baseline assumes sanctions pressure remains at the level prevailing at the start of 2026 and that there are no other major shocks, while highlighting very high uncertainty and predominantly downside risks from private-demand developments, commodity markets, public-sector pressures and sanctions, with oil-market scenarios including potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or a temporary lifting of sanctions affecting the price of Russian oil.
Bank of Finland 2026-03-30
Bank of Finland BOFIT forecast projects Russia growth stuck at 1% in 2026 with a slowdown in 2027–2028
The Bank of Finland’s BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2026–2028 projects economic growth of around 1% in 2026, broadly in line with 2025, before slowing in 2027–2028. The weak outlook is attributed to subdued private consumption, stagnant fixed investment, less supportive fiscal stimulus and tight monetary policy, with the baseline assuming unchanged sanctions and highlighting very high uncertainty and downside risks, including from private demand, commodity markets, public-sector pressures and oil-market disruptions.