The Central Bank of Aruba has published its short and medium term Economic Outlook, projecting that real economic growth will slow from an estimated 6.3% in 2025 to 3.7% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. Household spending, fiscal stimulus, employment growth and additional tourist arrivals are expected to support activity in 2026, while slower household spending and tourism growth are projected to outweigh increased investment in 2027. Inflation is forecast to rise from 0.1% in 2025 to 2.4% in 2026 as Middle East tensions push up international oil prices, transportation costs and import prices, before easing to 1.4% in 2027. Under an adverse scenario in which oil prices remain elevated through the end of 2027, growth would slow to 0.4% and inflation would reach 4.9% in 2027 as higher prices erode household purchasing power. Growth is projected to moderate further to 2.1% in 2028, 1.7% in 2029 and 1.0% in 2030. The outlook remains sensitive to tourism demand, energy prices, labor availability, investment implementation, fiscal policy and global economic and geopolitical conditions.
2026-09-07Central Bank of Aruba
Central Bank of Aruba projects growth slowing to 2.3% in 2027 as inflation pressures rise
The Central Bank of Aruba projects economic growth will slow from an estimated 6.3% in 2025 to 3.7% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, while inflation rises to 2.4% in 2026 before easing to 1.4% in 2027. If oil prices remain elevated through the end of 2027, growth could fall to 0.4% and inflation could reach 4.9% that year.