The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas published its latest Texas Employment Forecast projecting that Texas jobs will grow 2.0 percent in 2026, up from the previous month’s forecast. The forecast carries an 80 percent confidence band of 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent and implies that 286,000 jobs will be added over the year, taking total employment to 14.6 million by December 2026. The forecast is based on an average of four models incorporating projected national gross domestic product, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes. The Dallas Fed said Texas employment growth accelerated in June, with jobs rising at an annualized 3.5 percent and year-to-date growth reaching 1.9 percent. Professional and business services and leisure and hospitality led June gains, while construction and trade and transportation also increased. Education and health services and government posted losses. Among major Texas metros, Austin recorded the fastest growth at 5.8 percent, while San Antonio declined 3.1 percent. The statewide unemployment rate increased to 4.4 percent in June, with metro rates rising in Austin–Round Rock, Fort Worth–Arlington, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, and San Antonio–New Braunfels, declining in Brownsville–Harlingen, and remaining unchanged in Dallas–Plano–Irving and El Paso.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas2026-07-17
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas raises Texas 2026 employment forecast to 2.0 percent growth, implying 286,000 new jobs
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas raised its Texas 2026 employment forecast to 2.0 percent growth, up from the prior month, with a projected 286,000 jobs added and total employment reaching 14.6 million by December 2026. June job growth accelerated to an annualized 3.5 percent, while the statewide unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent.