The Central Bank of Russia has maintained its 2025 net profit forecast for the banking sector at 3.0–3.5 trillion, while updating its expectations for corporate, mortgage and consumer lending based on the 2025 first-half results in its quarterly Banking Sector review. In 2025 Q2, banks’ claims on companies rose by 2.4% after a 0.2% decline in 2025 Q1, and the central bank now expects claims on companies to grow by 9–12% by end-2025, compared with 8–13% previously. Mortgage lending accelerated to 1.4% growth in 2025 Q2 from 0.01% in 2025 Q1, but the upper bound of the 2025 mortgage growth forecast was reduced to 6% from 8%. The consumer loan portfolio fell by 1.6% in 2025 Q2 and the upper bound of the 2025 consumer lending growth forecast was lowered to 2% from 4%. The net interest margin forecast for end-2025 was kept at 4.0–4.4%, expected to be closer to the upper end of the range, with higher interest income offsetting a rising cost of risk.
Central Bank of Russia 2025-09-04
Central Bank of Russia maintains 2025 banking sector profit forecast at 3.0–3.5 trillion and revises lending growth projections
The Central Bank of Russia maintains its 2025 net profit forecast for the banking sector at 3.0–3.5 trillion RUB, adjusting lending expectations based on first-half results. Corporate lending is expected to grow by 9–12% by end-2025, with mortgage and consumer lending growth forecasts reduced to 6% and 2%, respectively. The net interest margin forecast remains at 4.0–4.4%, anticipated near the upper end due to higher interest income offsetting increased risk costs.