National Bank of Serbia reviews global market moves, US and German yields rise as Brent gains 5.39%

The National Bank of Serbia published its weekly overview of global financial market developments for July 6 to 10, centered on the market impact of renewed tensions between the United States and Iran. The review shows that higher oil prices revived inflation concerns and increased expectations that major central banks could keep or return to a tighter policy stance. Over the period, the euro was little changed against the dollar and ended at USD 1.1430, while US and German government bond yields rose across most maturities, Brent crude increased 5.39% to USD 76.01 per barrel, and gold fell 1.68% to USD 4,104.65 per ounce. In the United States, the two-year Treasury yield rose about 7 basis points to 4.21% and the 10-year yield about 8 basis points to 4.56%, with the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes showing greater concern about inflation and some officials seeing a case for earlier rate increases. German government bond yields also climbed, with the two-year up about 11 basis points to 2.65% and the 10-year up about 10 basis points to 3.03%, as investors priced in renewed energy-driven inflation risks and a greater possibility of further European Central Bank tightening. The review also highlighted selected developments in emerging markets, including the National Bank of Romania keeping its policy rate at 6.50%, the National Bank of Poland holding at 3.75% while its governor did not rule out a 25 basis point cut in September, and Hungary placing EUR 3.0 billion of dual-tranche eurobonds.