National Bank of Ukraine survey shows rising loan demand and banks plan further lending growth with corporate outlook strongest since 2015

The National Bank of Ukraine published its Q1 Bank Lending Survey, showing that banks recorded a further increase in demand for both corporate and retail loans and expect lending volumes to keep growing. Expectations for corporate lending over the next 12 months reached their highest level since the start of 2015, while nearly two-thirds of institutions plan to increase lending to households. Banks reported stronger corporate loan demand in Q1, led by large enterprises seeking hryvnia-denominated and long-term funding, mainly for capital investment and working capital, and they expect demand to rise further in Q2. Retail demand also increased, continuing trends seen since Q2 2023 for consumer loans and since the start of 2025 for mortgages. Corporate lending standards were broadly unchanged and are not expected to tighten, while approval rates rose for all corporate loan types except foreign currency loans for a fourth consecutive quarter. For households, consumer lending standards eased slightly and mortgage standards were unchanged, with further easing expected for both; retail approval rates increased, alongside larger approved amounts and longer consumer-loan maturities. Banks reported higher risks across all categories except interest rate risk and expect foreign exchange, credit, and operational risks to rise. The survey was conducted among credit managers at 25 banks representing 96% of total banking system assets, and results reflect respondents’ views rather than assessments or forecasts by the National Bank of Ukraine. A survey including expectations for Q3 is scheduled for release in July.