The Board of the National Bank of Romania kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.50% on 17 February 2026, arguing that the current stance is appropriate as headline CPI inched down to 9.62% in January from 9.69% in December while GDP fell 1.9% q/q in Q4 and full-year 2025 growth slowed to 0.6%, signalling weak demand alongside still-elevated inflation. The benchmark has been steady at 6.50% since January 2025. The overnight lending and deposit facility rates stay at 7.50% and 5.50% respectively, reserve-requirement ratios are unchanged, and interbank rates and sovereign yields have continued to retreat to multi-month lows. Core inflation (CORE2 adjusted) held at 8.5% in January; private‐sector credit growth eased to 6.2% y/y in December, and labour-market indicators point to softer hiring intentions, though unit labour-cost growth picked up late last year. Externally, a sharper fall in imports than exports helped compress the trade gap in Q4, while the leu briefly firmed against the EUR in early January before retracing and later gained versus the USD as the dollar weakened globally. The central bank projects a slow disinflation in Q1, a Q2 uptick on base effects and policy-driven price rises, followed by an abrupt drop in Q3 as prior energy-price and tax shocks fade, with inflation expected to move inside the target band from mid-2027 amid stronger demand-side disinflation. High uncertainty stems from future fiscal-consolidation measures, ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions
National Bank of Romania 2026-02-17
NBR keeps policy rate unchanged at 6.50%
The National Bank of Romania left its policy rate unchanged at 6.50% on 17 February, keeping the overnight lending/deposit facility at 7.50%/5.50% and reserve ratios steady, citing weak demand (GDP −1.9% q/q in Q4; 2025 growth 0.6%) and still-high but easing CPI (9.62% in January). It foresees gradual disinflation—with a Q2 bump and a sharper Q3 drop—bringing inflation inside target from mid-2027, but flagged fiscal, geopolitical and external-policy uncertainties.