In remarks published by the National Bank of Serbia from an event presenting the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's latest report, the governor described demographic change as a major structural challenge for economic policy rather than a narrow population issue. The speech said ageing, low fertility and a shrinking workforce can reduce potential gross domestic product growth, put pressure on pension, social and health systems, and alter labour market, growth and inflation dynamics. It also stressed that, while demographic policy is outside the central bank's formal remit, the National Bank of Serbia contributes by maintaining monetary and financial stability and protecting purchasing power. The remarks pointed to several policy responses, including investment in technology and artificial intelligence to raise productivity, active labour market measures to increase participation, private sector investment, well-managed migration and reforms to education and human capital. Citing the EBRD report, the speech said Serbia's population fell by 13% between 1990 and 2023, mainly because of low fertility, but recent fertility trends have diverged from much of Europe. Serbia's total fertility rate rose from 1.46 in 2014 to 1.64 in 2024, while the European Union average fell from 1.54 to 1.34, improving Serbia's position to fifth from 27th among 36 comparable European countries. Serbia was also described as being among the countries with the relatively smallest decline in female employment after childbirth. The governor also pointed to broader government measures, including the creation of a Council for Family and Demography and work on Serbia's first comprehensive Demographic Development Strategy for 2026 to 2036, with projections to 2050. Existing support measures highlighted in the speech included parental allowances, direct financial support linked to the number of children and subsidies for mothers buying a first home.
National Bank of Serbia 2026-04-28
National Bank of Serbia publishes governor remarks on demographic pressures on growth and Serbia's fertility increase
The National Bank of Serbia governor highlighted demographic change as a key structural challenge, noting that ageing, low fertility and a shrinking workforce can weigh on potential GDP growth and strain pension, social and health systems. While demographic policy lies outside its mandate, the bank supports it via monetary and financial stability. The speech stressed investment in technology and AI, labour market measures, migration management and human capital reforms, and cited improving fertility trends versus the EU and new government initiatives, including a Council for Family and Demography, a 2026–2036 Demographic Development Strategy and targeted family support.