The Central Bank of Russia published its quarterly Banking Sector review, highlighting a late-2024 slowdown in lending and projecting a return to more moderate credit and deposit growth in 2025 alongside weaker profitability. Corporate lending growth decelerated to 2.9% in 2024 Q4, with full-year growth at 17.9%, and is expected to rise by 8–13% in 2025, partly reflecting repayment by companies that received payments under government contracts. Mortgage portfolio growth slowed to 1.5% over the quarter and 13.4% over 2024, with 2025 growth projected at 3–8% amid reduced market-based mortgages at high interest rates. Consumer lending contracted by 2% in 2024 Q4 but grew 11.2% over 2024, with 2025 growth estimated at between -1% and +4% due in part to tight monetary and macroprudential policies. Corporate deposits rose 11.9% and household deposits 26.1% by end-2024, with 2025 deposit growth expected at 5–10% and 7–12% respectively. The review assumes a slight reduction in net interest margin and a significant increase in cost of risk, bringing sector profits down to RUB 3.0–3.5 trillion.

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