National Bank of Ukraine reports improving but still below-neutral business expectations with February BAEI at 45.9

The National Bank of Ukraine published results of its February 2026 Business Outlook Survey showing companies raised their cautious expectations for economic activity compared to January, while sentiment was slightly weaker than a year earlier. The business activity expectations index increased to 45.9 from 41.3 in January 2026, versus 46.9 in February 2025, remaining below the neutral 50 level. Expectations continued to be weighed down by uncertainty over the duration of hostilities, destruction of energy and infrastructure facilities, recovery and backup power costs, higher electricity prices for businesses, a shortage of skilled labour, and seasonal factors, with the energy situation cited as a key reason for the year-on-year deterioration. Offsetting support came from sustained consumer demand, stable inflows of international aid, and slowing inflation. Sector indices improved across the board, with industry at 46.9, construction at 46.6, trade at 45.0 and services at 45.4, and companies in all surveyed sectors reported improved current performance. Respondents also reported intentions to raise selling prices further amid faster growth in purchase prices, while labour market plans were mixed as only construction companies expected to expand headcount and other sectors signalled layoffs, most strongly in industry. The survey was conducted from 3 February to 20 February 2026 among 598 companies, and the results reflect respondents’ views rather than National Bank of Ukraine assessments. The next survey results, covering March 2026, are scheduled for publication on the first business day of April 2026.