Thailand’s Ministry of Finance published updated macroeconomic projections for 2025 and 2026, forecasting GDP growth of 2.2% in 2025 (range 2.0%–2.5%) and 2.0% in 2026 (range 1.5%–2.5%). The 2025 outlook is based on stimulus measures, faster government budget disbursements and stronger-than-expected exports, while the 2026 slowdown is linked to a high base from earlier export acceleration, challenges tied to US trade retaliatory tariffs and the expected delay in the FY2027 budget process. For 2025, private consumption is projected to grow 3.3% and private investment 2.9%, with government investment seen rising 6.9%; exports of goods and services are forecast to grow 9.0% and imports 6.5%. Headline inflation is projected at -0.1% (core inflation 0.8%), alongside a current account surplus of USD 15.4 billion (2.8% of GDP). In 2026, private consumption is forecast at 2.5% and private investment 3.2%, while government investment is expected to contract by -1.7%; export growth is projected at 0.6% and imports at 1.1%. Inflation is forecast at 0.3% (core inflation 0.7%) and the current account surplus at USD 12.0 billion (2.0% of GDP), with foreign tourist arrivals assumed at 35.5 million. Key assumptions include an average THB/USD exchange rate of 32.9 in 2025 and 32.0 in 2026, and Dubai crude oil prices of USD 68.3 per barrel in 2025 and USD 57.5 in 2026. An official announcement of the projections is scheduled for 16 February 2026, and the ministry highlighted monitoring needs around global trade and geopolitical uncertainty, financial vulnerabilities, policy continuity during the transition period and climate-related risks.

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