The Central Bank of Costa Rica has implemented an updated methodology for its survey of inflation and exchange rate expectations, aiming to better capture economic agents’ perceptions of the future path of these variables. The survey’s results are used as an input into monetary policy decision-making under an inflation-targeting framework. Key changes include an updated sampling frame and a refreshed sample split into four subpopulations: economic consultants, financial and stock market analysts, economics academics, and businesspeople. The survey covers 384 respondents distributed across three monthly samples of 128 each; this rotation approach has been used since December 2021 to reduce non-response. For sampling, probability proportional to size is applied to the business subpopulation, while equal-probability random sampling is used for the other three groups; subpopulations are weighted equally at 25% each. A June–August 2025 pilot using the new sample lifted the average response rate to 80% and produced results with no statistically significant differences versus the previous sample, supporting continuity and historical comparability. Survey results and the accompanying methodological document continue to be published monthly on the Central Bank of Costa Rica’s website.
Central Bank of Costa Rica 2025-09-30
Central Bank of Costa Rica updates inflation and exchange rate expectations survey methodology with renewed sample and equal weighting
The Central Bank of Costa Rica has updated its survey methodology for inflation and exchange rate expectations to enhance the capture of economic agents' perceptions. Key changes include a refreshed sample split into four subpopulations and a rotation approach to improve response rates. The updated methodology, piloted from June to August 2025, showed no significant differences from previous samples, ensuring continuity and comparability.