The Central Bank of Ecuador published its economic cycle analysis for the first quarter of 2026, showing that the economy remained in an expansion phase and stayed above its long-term trend. The bank also said its monitoring indicators point to that positive performance continuing in the second quarter. The assessment is presented as a complement to gross domestic product tracking and uses a methodology designed for a dollarized economy based on the Economic Composite Indicator System. Its coincident indicator, which reflects current conditions, continued to show expansion, supported by public sector oil revenue, sales in construction, manufacturing and trade, the value of active operations in the financial system, and value-added tax collection. Its leading indicator also remained consistent with continued expansion in the second quarter, drawing on signals from imports of raw materials and intermediate goods for industry excluding construction, West Texas Intermediate crude prices, domestic refined products output, the national unemployment rate, the non-oil terms of trade index and total savings deposits. The bank noted that this forward signal will need to be confirmed once second-quarter 2026 GDP results become available.
Central Bank of Ecuador2026-07-07
Central Bank of Ecuador finds economy remained in expansion in the first quarter and points to continued growth in the second quarter
The Central Bank of Ecuador said its first-quarter 2026 economic cycle analysis shows the economy remained in an expansion phase and above its long-term trend. Its coincident and leading indicators both point to continued expansion, with the second-quarter signal to be confirmed when GDP data are available.