The World Bank published its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update (NDU), finding that Nigeria has made meaningful progress in restoring macroeconomic stability following recent reforms, but that faster, more inclusive growth will depend on strengthening productive capabilities, especially through investment in people starting in early life. The report notes that GDP growth held at 4.0% in 2025, led by services including ICT, financial services and real estate, while inflation eased to 15.1% year-on-year in February 2026 from 26.3% a year earlier, supported by tight monetary policy, reduced exchange rate volatility and improved food supply. It records a positive external position in 2025, with a current account surplus of 4.8% of GDP and gross external reserves rising to USD 45.5 billion (8.7 months of imports), and says stronger non-oil revenues lifted Federation Account receipts to 8.5% of GDP as the consolidated fiscal deficit widened modestly to 3.1% of GDP. Against a backdrop of still-high poverty and incomplete recovery in household incomes, the NDU expects the Middle East conflict to have mixed but manageable effects and recommends maintaining a flexible exchange rate, keeping monetary policy tight, using any oil windfall to rebuild buffers and provide targeted support rather than blanket subsidies, and strengthening policy communication to anchor expectations. On human capital, it highlights weak and unequal early childhood outcomes, citing under-five mortality of about 110 per 1,000 children, stunting affecting 40%, and more than half of children not developmentally on track before school, and calls for an integrated package from pregnancy to age five spanning nutrition, health, caregiving, early learning and living environments such as water and sanitation. The World Bank projects growth averaging 4.2% over 2026–2028 and expects inflation to decline gradually, but more slowly than previously anticipated due to pressures linked to the Middle East conflict.
World Bank 2026-04-07
World Bank Nigeria Development Update credits macro stabilisation progress but calls for scaled-up early childhood development
The World Bank’s April 2026 Nigeria Development Update finds that recent reforms have helped restore macroeconomic stability, with 2025 GDP growth at 4.0%, inflation at 15.1% in February 2026, a current account surplus of 4.8% of GDP, and gross external reserves at USD 45.5 billion. It projects 2026–2028 growth averaging 4.2% and a gradual, slower-than-expected decline in inflation, and recommends a flexible exchange rate, tight monetary policy, targeted use of oil windfalls, and stronger policy communication. Faster, more inclusive growth will require strengthening human capital through integrated interventions from pregnancy to age five.