The Bank for International Settlements published a BIS Bulletin comparing residence-based and nationality-based views of international trade using detailed maritime shipment data, arguing that consolidating firms by the nationality of their ultimate parent provides a clearer picture of ownership, control and the structure of global value chains. The analysis finds that nationality-based measures reveal substantial cross-border shipments that occur “within nationality”, producing a markedly different map of global shipment flows than conventional residence-based statistics. The study uses 2024 containerised maritime shipment data matched to corporate ownership information from Dun & Bradstreet, covering 55.98 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) with an estimated value of USD 2.43 trillion, or about one third of global containerised shipment volume measured in TEU. Nationality-based flows show a high incidence of international shipments between firms of the same nationality, with within-nationality shipments largest in value for the United States (USD 26.03 billion), followed by Germany (USD 16.45 billion) and China (USD 11.04 billion); among the top 10 trading economies, US-nationality firms account for 45% of total incoming shipment value to the United States, versus 35% for China. Within-group shipments between entities under the same parent company umbrella make up a significant share of foreign subsidiary shipment value (around 40–50% depending on the country), accounting for around half for China, Japan and Germany and over 40% for the United States and Korea. The Bulletin also identifies two foreign-subsidiary shipment patterns: an “outpost” model with sourcing concentrated in the parent region (eg 71% of incoming shipments to Asian parents’ foreign subsidiaries originate from Asia, versus 17% for North America) and a “going-global” model with more globally distributed counterparties; on the supply side, customers of foreign subsidiaries are less concentrated in the parent region, with Asia a major destination across regions.
Bank for International Settlements 2025-12-03
Bank for International Settlements analyses maritime shipment data through firm nationality to reframe global trade links
The Bank for International Settlements released a BIS Bulletin analyzing international trade through nationality-based and residence-based perspectives using 2024 maritime shipment data. The study reveals that nationality-based measures highlight significant cross-border shipments within the same nationality, differing from traditional residence-based statistics. Key findings include substantial within-nationality shipments for the United States, Germany, and China, and distinct foreign-subsidiary shipment patterns like the "outpost" and "going-global" models.