The South African Reserve Bank reported that South Africa’s composite leading business cycle indicator fell 0.9% in July 2026 to 118.2, following a 1% decline in June. Six of the 10 available components decreased, outweighing increases in the other four, while annual growth in the indicator slowed to 2.3%. The largest negative contributions came from slower six-month smoothed growth in the real M1 money supply and fewer approved residential building plans. Stronger growth in job advertisements and a wider spread between 10-year government bond yields and 91-day Treasury bill rates provided the largest positive contributions. The coincident indicator edged down 0.1% in June, mainly because of lower real wholesale, retail and motor trade sales, while the lagging indicator rose 0.2%.
2026-09-22South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank reports further 0.9% decline in leading business cycle indicator in July
The South African Reserve Bank reported a further 0.9% decline in the composite leading business cycle indicator in July 2026, with weaker real M1 growth and fewer approved residential building plans the main drags. The coincident indicator fell 0.1% in June, while the lagging indicator increased 0.2%.