The South African Reserve Bank published its latest composite business cycle indicators, showing that the leading indicator fell 0.3% in May 2026 after a 2.0% decline in April. The indicator remained 4.2% higher than a year earlier. The coincident indicator decreased 0.4% in April, while the lagging indicator rose 0.1%. Five of the 10 available leading-indicator components declined. Lower business confidence and fewer residential building plans approved were the largest negative contributors, outweighing stronger growth in real M1 money supply and new passenger vehicle sales. The coincident indicator was weakened by declines in real wholesale, retail and motor trade sales and in industrial production.
South African Reserve Bank2026-07-28
South African Reserve Bank reports further 0.3% decline in leading business cycle indicator in May
The South African Reserve Bank reported that the leading business cycle indicator fell a further 0.3% in May 2026, although it remained 4.2% higher year over year. Lower business confidence and residential building approvals were the main drags. The coincident indicator declined 0.4% in April, while the lagging indicator edged up 0.1%.