The National Bank of Serbia published its overview of global financial market developments for 23–27 March 2026, highlighting market moves tied to Middle East developments and shifting macro expectations. Over the week, the euro depreciated 0.39% against the US dollar to 1.1513, longer-dated US and German government bond yields rose (10-year US Treasury to 4.43% and 10-year Bund to 3.09%), and US equity indices fell. EUR/USD traded between 1.1485 and 1.1640, with the report also pointing to weaker preliminary March composite PMI readings in the United States (51.4) and the euro area (50.5). It references comments by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde that conditions did not indicate an urgent rate increase, alongside ECB consumer survey results showing lower median inflation expectations (2.5% for both one- and three-year horizons). Brent crude ended at USD 112.57 per barrel (up 0.34% for the week, range USD 99.94–112.57) while gold fell 1.90% to USD 4,486.85 per ounce. For selected emerging markets, the overview notes that in the month following the escalation of the Middle East conflict and the associated rise in energy prices, Central and Eastern European currencies depreciated against the euro (including the Hungarian forint and Polish zloty by 3.3% and 1.4%), and local-currency bond yields rose sharply, with 10-year yields up by about 82 basis points on average. Over the same period, yields on 10-year euro-denominated Eurobonds (maturing in 2036) rose, including a 73 bp increase for Serbia.
National Bank of Serbia 2026-03-31
National Bank of Serbia publishes weekly global market overview showing euro weakness and rising long-term yields
The National Bank of Serbia published an overview of global financial market developments for 23–27 March 2026, noting euro depreciation against the US dollar, higher long-term US and German government bond yields, and weaker US and euro area preliminary March composite PMI readings. The report highlights European Central Bank communication indicating no urgent need for rate increases and lower median inflation expectations, alongside modestly higher Brent crude prices and a decline in gold. It also notes that after the escalation of the Middle East conflict, Central and Eastern European currencies weakened against the euro, local-currency bond yields rose sharply, and yields on 10-year euro-denominated Eurobonds, including Serbia’s 2036 issue, increased.