The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has published its Texas Employment Forecast projecting state employment growth of 1.8 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.4 percent. The forecast implies about 253,000 jobs added during the year and total employment of 14.6 million by December 2026. The release shows Texas employment grew at an annualized 1.6 percent in April, while year-to-date growth slowed to 1.5 percent and March growth was revised down to 3.4 percent. In commentary accompanying the report, senior business economist Luis Torres said the recent slowdown is more consistent with outcomes near the lower end of the forecast range, citing immigration constraining labor supply, higher productivity suppressing labor demand in some sectors, geopolitical uncertainty related to the Iran War weighing on hiring and capital expenditure decisions, and high oil prices as a support only if sustained. April job gains were strongest in professional and business services, construction, and trade and transportation services, while leisure and hospitality, financial services, and manufacturing posted the largest losses. The statewide unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent in April, although it increased across the major metro areas listed in the report.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas2026-05-22
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas forecasts 1.8 percent Texas employment growth in 2026 with 253,000 jobs added
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas projects Texas employment growth of 1.8 percent in 2026, implying about 253,000 additional jobs and total employment of 14.6 million by December, within an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.4 percent. April data show annualized employment growth of 1.6 percent and a steady unemployment rate of 4.3 percent, with gains in professional and business services, construction, and trade and transportation, and losses in leisure and hospitality, financial services, and manufacturing.