The National Bank of Moldova has raised its inflation forecast for nearly the entire comparable period from the third quarter of 2026 through the first quarter of 2028. Annual inflation is expected to rise through the end of 2026, remain above the upper limit of the band around the 5% medium-term target until mid-2027, and return to the band in the third quarter of 2027 before declining further through the forecast horizon. Higher energy costs, regulated tariff adjustments, second-round effects and other supply imbalances are expected to sustain price pressures. Inflation averaged 6.68% in the second quarter of 2026 and stood at 6.51% in June, slightly above the target band’s 6.5% upper limit. Against this backdrop, the bank raised its base rate to 7.5% on Aug. 6 and retained reserve requirements of 18% for funds attracted in Moldovan lei and nonconvertible currency and 26% for funds in freely convertible currency.
National Bank of Moldova2026-08-13
National Bank of Moldova raises inflation outlook, forecasts return to target band in third quarter 2027
The National Bank of Moldova raised its inflation forecast for almost the entire comparable period and expects inflation to increase through the end of 2026. Inflation is projected to remain above the target band until mid-2027 and return within it in the third quarter of 2027. The bank raised its base rate to 7.5% on Aug. 6 as energy and regulated-price pressures persisted.