The South African Reserve Bank released updated composite business cycle indicators for South Africa, showing the composite leading indicator rose by 0.5% in February 2026, while the composite coincident indicator increased by 0.3% and the composite lagging indicator decreased by 0.3% in January 2026. The leading indicator increase reflected gains in seven of the ten available component series, with the largest positive contributions coming from more residential building plans approved and a higher US dollar-based export commodity price index. The largest negative contributions were a fall in the volume of domestic orders received in manufacturing and a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in job advertisements; the interest rate spread between 10-year government bonds and 91-day Treasury bills also detracted. The leading indicator stood at 120.2 (2019 = 100) in February 2026, up 6.4% year on year; the coincident indicator was 95.7 in January 2026 (up 0.5% year on year) and rose on stronger industrial production and higher real wholesale, retail and motor trade sales. The lagging indicator was 105.3 in January 2026 (down 1.8% year on year), and the Reserve Bank noted the composite indicators are revised continuously following revisions to underlying component data. The next release is scheduled for 26 May 2026 at 09:00.
South African Reserve Bank 2026-04-28
South African Reserve Bank publishes composite business cycle indicators with leading index up 0.5% in February 2026
The South African Reserve Bank’s updated business cycle indicators show the composite leading indicator rose 0.5% in February 2026, the coincident indicator increased 0.3% and the lagging indicator fell 0.3% in January. The leading indicator reached 120.2 (2019 = 100), up 6.4% year on year, driven mainly by more residential building plans approved and a higher US dollar-based export commodity price index, while weaker domestic manufacturing orders and slower growth in job advertisements detracted. The coincident indicator rose to 95.7 on stronger industrial production and higher real trade sales, while the lagging indicator declined to 105.3.