The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas's latest Texas Employment Forecast projects Texas jobs will grow 1.8 percent in 2026, up from the previous month's forecast, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 percent to 2.4 percent. That implies roughly 260,100 jobs added during 2026 and total employment of 14.6 million by December 2026. The forecast is based on an average of four models incorporating projected national gross domestic product, oil futures prices, and the Texas and US leading indexes. March Texas employment grew at an annualized 3.9 percent, pushing year-to-date growth to 1.7 percent, while February job growth was revised down to 0.2 percent. In comments accompanying the release, senior business economist Luis Torres said several headwinds could leave growth closer to the lower end of the range, around 1.2 percent, citing declining immigration, higher productivity, sluggish employment signals in the Texas Business Outlook Surveys, geopolitical uncertainty affecting hiring and capital expenditure, and oil prices needing to remain high to materially support activity. The statewide unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent in March, with metro rates unchanged in Austin–Round Rock, Dallas–Plano–Irving, El Paso, Fort Worth–Arlington, and Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, down in Brownsville–Harlingen, and up in San Antonio–New Braunfels.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2026-05-01
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas raises Texas 2026 employment forecast to 1.8 percent growth
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas projects Texas employment will grow 1.8 percent in 2026, implying about 260,100 jobs added and total employment of 14.6 million by December, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 percent to 2.4 percent. The forecast, based on four models using national GDP, oil futures and leading indexes, is tempered by headwinds including declining immigration, higher productivity, weak survey signals, geopolitical uncertainty and dependence on high oil prices, while unemployment held at 4.3 percent in March.