The Central Bank of Ecuador published preliminary national accounts for 2024 and updated macroeconomic projections, reporting that Ecuador’s gross domestic product contracted by 2.0% over the year. The decline was driven by weaker household consumption (-1.3%), lower government spending (-1.2%) and a drop in gross fixed capital formation (-3.8%), while exports grew 1.8% and imports increased 1.7%. The release highlights security conditions, the progressive closure of oil wells in Block 43-ITT, political uncertainty linked to the 2025 electoral process and the most severe drought in 60 years as key factors shaping 2024 outcomes. The central bank estimated losses from power outages linked to the drought at USD 1.916 billion, equivalent to a -1.4% impact on GDP, with the largest losses in trade (USD 763.1 million), manufacturing (USD 380.2 million) and services (USD 374.1 million). Across industries, five of 20 sectors recorded annual growth, led by agriculture, livestock and forestry (3.1%), financial and insurance activities (1.3%) and real estate activities (1.3%). In the fourth quarter of 2024, GDP fell 0.9% year on year but rose 1.3% quarter on quarter. For 2025, the central bank forecasts a recovery with GDP growth of 2.8%, supported by stronger household consumption, non-oil exports and higher public and private investment, while flagging ongoing domestic challenges and external risks including a potential sharp fall in oil prices. It also noted that the 2024 figures are preliminary, with provisional and final annual national accounts for 2024 scheduled for publication in December 2025 and December 2026, respectively.

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