The Federal Reserve Board published a FEDS Note setting out a framework of publicly available indicators to track how the generative artificial intelligence buildout is affecting the economy. The note groups the indicators into three areas, capabilities and costs, firm investment and adoption, and productivity and labor, and concludes that the evidence as of 2026 is more consistent with a buildout phase than with broad-based displacement or economywide transformation. The framework points to rapid advances in technical capability and falling key input costs, including declines in unit GPU costs, while also stressing that firm-specific integration costs remain hard to observe. On investment and adoption, the note highlights strong growth in hyperscaler capital expenditure, data center construction, IT equipment spending and semiconductor production, alongside rising firm uptake in the Census Bureau's Business Trends and Outlook Survey, although usage intensity appears shallow even where adoption is reported. It also presents an approximation showing AI-related software, data centers, power facilities, and computer and peripheral equipment contributing meaningfully to quarterly GDP growth from 2025 through the first quarter of 2026, with net exports offsetting part of that effect in some quarters. On downstream effects, the note says productivity gains seen in micro-level studies have not yet translated into a clear aggregate signal, even if highly exposed sectors show relatively strong labor productivity growth. Labor market effects also remain concentrated rather than broad-based, with aggregate unemployment still moderate and early evidence pointing more to slower hiring in exposed areas, including for younger workers, than to widespread layoffs. The Board said the accompanying data file can be updated as new data become available to monitor whether labor market shifts, productivity divergence across exposure groups, or stronger links between capital spending and productivity begin to signal broader macroeconomic change.
Federal Reserve Board2026-07-17
Federal Reserve Board publishes AI buildout tracker, finds investment and adoption rising but broad labor effects limited
The Federal Reserve Board published a FEDS Note outlining public indicators to track generative AI's economic effects across capabilities and costs, firm investment and adoption, and productivity and labor. The note finds rapid capability gains, heavy investment and rising adoption, but says aggregate productivity and labor market effects remain limited and concentrated as of 2026.