The Bank of Thailand published the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff concluding statement from the 2025 Article IV Consultation with Thailand, setting out a weaker growth outlook, persistently subdued inflation, and policy priorities amid limited fiscal space and elevated household debt. The IMF noted that Thailand’s economy expanded by 3% in the first half of 2025 but projected growth to slow to 2.1% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026 as headwinds intensify, with risks tilted to the downside. Inflation was assessed as low and expected to remain subdued, returning to the authorities’ 1–3% target range only by 2027. The statement called for targeted and parsimonious fiscal support backed by a credible medium-term consolidation strategy, judged the shift to monetary easing appropriate with scope for further loosening, and highlighted the need to restore the impaired credit channel to improve monetary transmission, building on recent steps taken by the authorities. It also pointed to the urgency of advancing structural reforms to lift productivity and competitiveness.
Bank of Thailand 2025-11-13
Bank of Thailand posts IMF Article IV statement forecasting 2.1% growth in 2025 and inflation back to target only by 2027
The Bank of Thailand released the IMF staff's concluding statement from the 2025 Article IV Consultation, highlighting a weaker growth outlook and subdued inflation. The IMF projects growth to slow to 2.1% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, with inflation remaining low and returning to the 1–3% target range by 2027. The statement emphasizes the need for targeted fiscal support, further monetary easing, and structural reforms to enhance productivity and competitiveness.