The European Central Bank has released the February 2026 edition of its Survey of Monetary Analysts questionnaire, seeking respondents’ expectations for near-term policy rates and market rates around upcoming Governing Council meetings and quarter-ends, as well as “long run” levels once shocks have dissipated. The survey requests projections for the deposit facility rate, main refinancing operations rate, marginal lending facility rate, €STR and three-month EURIBOR, alongside probability distributions for potential deposit facility rate moves at the February and March 2026 meetings. It also covers expected end-period levels for 10-year €STR OIS and 10-year government bond yields for Germany, France, Italy and Spain one and two years ahead; expected Eurosystem bond holdings under the asset purchase programme and pandemic emergency purchase programme through 2034, starting from end-2025 Q4 book values of EUR 2,544 billion (APP) and EUR 1,493 billion (PEPP); the likelihood of first activation of the Transmission Protection Instrument over different horizons; expectations for outstanding main refinancing operations and longer-term refinancing operations; and forecasts and risk assessments for euro area GDP growth, unemployment and HICP inflation, including HICP excluding food and energy, output-gap estimates, and inflation probability distributions relative to 2% and in the long run.
European Central Bank 2026-01-19
European Central Bank publishes February 2026 Survey of Monetary Analysts questionnaire on rate path, asset holdings and macro outlook
The European Central Bank has issued its February 2026 Survey of Monetary Analysts, soliciting forecasts on policy and market rates, Eurosystem bond holdings, and economic indicators such as GDP growth and inflation. The survey includes expectations for rates like the deposit facility rate and EURIBOR, as well as projections for bond yields and the potential activation of the Transmission Protection Instrument.