The Central Bank of Barbados published its outlook for the economy in 2026 and the medium term, forecasting real GDP growth of around 2.5–3.0% in 2026 and a gradual rise toward about 3.5% per year over the medium term. The projection is built on continued momentum in tourism, construction, wholesale and retail trade, and business and other services, supported by public and private investment and reforms under the Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation programme 2026. A broad investment pipeline is expected to sustain construction and ease capacity constraints, including airport and seaport infrastructure, road networks, water distribution, sewage treatment, renewable energy, and housing. Tourism growth is expected to be supported by expanded airlift, improved connectivity, scheduled events, and a cruise itinerary pipeline, with planned expansion and upgrades at Grantley Adams International Airport aimed at increasing capacity and improving passenger flows. The release also points to tight labour market conditions supporting household incomes and domestic demand, while global growth is expected to remain broadly supportive despite trade policy uncertainty and elevated tariffs. Inflation is projected to remain low and stable, broadly between 1% and 2.5% in the near term, while strong tourism receipts and investment-related capital inflows are expected to keep international reserves above prudential benchmarks, alongside risks from regional geopolitical developments affecting airspace, shipping routes, insurance costs, and travel logistics. Fiscal discipline is expected to hold as public investment accelerates, with the government remaining on track for a primary surplus target of 4.1% of GDP in FY2025/26.
Central Bank of Barbados 2026-01-30
Central Bank of Barbados projects 2.5–3.0% real GDP growth in 2026 as inflation stays within 1–2.5% range
The Central Bank of Barbados forecasts real GDP growth of 2.5–3.0% in 2026, rising to 3.5% annually over the medium term, driven by tourism, construction, and trade, supported by investment and reforms under the Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation programme. Inflation is expected to remain stable between 1% and 2.5%, with strong tourism receipts and capital inflows maintaining international reserves above benchmarks, while fiscal discipline targets a 4.1% primary surplus of GDP in FY2025/26.