The Central Bank of Russia has published the third 2026 issue of the Russian Journal of Money and Finance, featuring research on inflation expectations, monetary policy transmission, financial cycles and artificial intelligence. A new measure combining inflation estimates embedded in government bond yields indicates that market participants’ long-term inflation expectations had approached the central bank’s 4% target by early 2026. The research finds that key rate increases have the strongest effects on construction, trade, manufacturing and services, although they produce an anti-inflationary response across all industries. Regions with more concentrated banking sectors show stronger short-term responses in corporate lending rates and investment, while regional differences weaken over longer horizons. Other papers conclude that no universal set of indicators or methodology for forecasting financial cycles has emerged and review research on AI’s effects on economic behavior, forecasting, growth, labor markets, inequality, financial markets and monetary policy.
2026-09-25Central Bank of Russia
Central Bank of Russia publishes research showing long-term inflation expectations near 4% and uneven rate transmission
The Central Bank of Russia has published research indicating that long-term market inflation expectations approached its 4% target by early 2026. The studies also find that key rate changes affect industries and regions unevenly, while retaining an anti-inflationary effect across all sectors.