In remarks on the banking sector outlook, the Central Bank of Russia said banks entered 2026 from a position of strength and set out a regulatory agenda centred on capital, credit risk and concentration. It expects balanced lending growth to continue, with corporate loans rising 7% to 12%, mortgages 6% to 11% and unsecured consumer lending returning to growth at 4% to 9%, while 2026 banking profits are projected at RUB 3.3 trillion to RUB 3.8 trillion. The central bank said it will keep rebuilding resilience through higher capital standards, but also ease selected rules where risks are lower, including by allowing critical import-substitution IT intangible assets to be deducted from capital over four years rather than all at once. On capital, the central bank said sector-wide adequacy rose by 0.7 percentage points to 13.2% in 2025 and banks now hold about RUB 9 trillion of capital buffers above minimum requirements. It plans to start introducing differentiated capital buffers for systemically important banks from around 2028, with discussions on timing and calibration due next year, and will shortly issue a consultation paper on gradually raising minimum capital requirements for small banks. On asset quality, it said retail problem loans have risen after rapid growth but remain below historic highs, while corporate credit quality is still sound overall. At the same time, it is tightening safeguards against future risk build-up through a higher macroprudential add-on for new loans to highly leveraged large borrowers from 1 March, new limits in the third quarter of 2026 on the use of expert judgment in assessing large problem corporate loans, and a planned prohibition next year on classifying highly leveraged companies as having good or medium financial positions. Over the next few months, it will also present a final concentration-risk framework aimed over time at ensuring no bank has credit exposure above 25% of capital, and in the third quarter of 2026 it plans to bring credit digital financial assets and credit default swaps into the regulatory framework to help distribute credit risk. Beyond prudential measures, the central bank warned that repeated failures to handle customer complaints properly could lead to enforcement orders, penalties and public disclosure, and it reiterated calls for banks to proactively explain transaction restrictions imposed under anti-money laundering and anti-fraud rules. It said rules for the universal QR code will be released in March ahead of mandatory bank support from September 2026, backed the open-model approach for financial services on marketplaces and ecosystems, and said legislation for independent non-bank payment providers is close to second reading. The digital ruble rollout remains on schedule, with core transfer and payment functions operational and first-wave banks completing preparations, while a concept for a commercial smart-contract platform is due to be presented for discussion this year.
Central Bank of Russia2026-03-05
Central Bank of Russia outlines 2026 banking agenda, signals differentiated capital buffers from 2028
In a speech on the sector outlook, the Central Bank of Russia set out its 2026 banking agenda around stronger capital, tighter corporate credit-risk controls and lower concentration risk, while saying lending growth and profits should remain broadly stable. It signalled differentiated buffers for systemically important banks from around 2028, new 2026 to 2027 measures for leveraged corporate borrowers, and gradual increases in minimum capital for small banks. The central bank also pointed to March rules for the universal QR code, progress on independent non-bank payment providers and a digital ruble rollout that remains on schedule.