The Central Bank of the Philippines (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, BSP) published results of its monthly Business Expectations Survey showing business sentiment deteriorated sharply in March, with firms citing concerns that higher fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict will weaken consumer spending. The March confidence index fell to -24.3% from 8.2% in February, while the quarter-ahead index dropped to -17.3% from 37.4%, indicating more pessimistic than optimistic responses. The 12-month outlook remained positive but eased to 11.7% from 51.1% amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and persistent inflationary pressures. Hiring intentions for both the coming quarter and year became less favorable, while a higher share of industry firms reported expansion plans reflecting investments already in place prior to the conflict. Businesses also expected inflation to accelerate, with average quarter- and year-ahead inflation expectations above the BSP’s 3.0% target but within the ±1.0 percentage-point tolerance band; the BSP stated it is monitoring spillovers from the conflict and stands ready to take monetary policy action if oil price increases create more persistent inflation, alongside regulatory measures to enable banks to assist affected clients. The March 2026 survey ran from 5 to 31 March and covered 515 firms nationwide across all 18 regions, with a 51.3% response rate and a ±5.9% sampling error margin.
Central Bank of the Philippines 2026-04-24
Central Bank of the Philippines’ March Business Expectations Survey shows confidence index drops to -24.3% and quarter-ahead outlook turns negative
The Central Bank of the Philippines (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) reported a sharp deterioration in March business sentiment, with the overall confidence index falling to -24.3% from 8.2% and the quarter-ahead index dropping to -17.3% from 37.4%, driven by concerns that higher fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict will weaken consumer spending. While the 12‑month outlook remained positive at 11.7%, it eased significantly amid geopolitical uncertainty and persistent inflationary pressures. Firms expect inflation to stay above the 3.0% target but within the ±1.0 percentage-point band, and the BSP said it is monitoring spillovers from the conflict and stands ready to adjust monetary policy.