The Monetary Board of the Bank of Guatemala kept the monetary policy leading interest rate at 3.50 % at its 27 May 2026 session, judging that headline inflation, which accelerated to 3.24 % y/y in April from 2.50 % in March but remains within the 4 % ± 1 pp target, still aligns with projections showing inflation on target in 2026-27 even as imported energy costs push prices higher. After three consecutive 25 bp rate cuts between September 2025 and February 2026, the policy rate has now been left unchanged for two meetings. No changes were announced to the operating framework. Short-term domestic indicators remain supportive of activity, consistent with the 2026 growth forecast of 3.1-5.1 %, though a prolonged external supply shock to fuel and energy could weigh on the outlook. The central bank noted that higher global oil prices, driven by the ongoing Middle East conflict, are already feeding into international inflation, while otherwise solid world growth is underpinned by resilient private consumption and still-favourable global financial conditions. The Board reiterated its readiness to act if upside risks from geopolitical tensions or possible El Niño-related weather effects threaten to divert inflation from its target.
Bank of Guatemala2026-05-27
Bank of Guatemala keeps policy rate unchanged at 3.50%
Bank of Guatemala’s Monetary Board on 27 May 2026 kept the policy rate at 3.50 % for a second consecutive meeting, seeing April inflation at 3.24 % y/y as on course to stay within the 4 % ± 1 pp target through 2027. While domestic growth remains solid, the board flagged rising global oil costs and possible El Niño impacts as upside inflation risks and said it stands ready to tighten if needed.